2024 Recession Probability Distribution. However, investors can make the most of a difficult situation by knowing which risk factors to watch and how to position their portfolios to optimize their performance if a. The recession probabilities increase prior to a recession, but again there are episodes when the probabilities increase without being followed by a recession.

In this graphic, we show the probability of a u.s. The economy could see a soft landing with weak growth, a soft landing with rising growth, or a recession.